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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek – SP500, DAX, EUR/USD 01/27-02/03/2014 !!!

    The first New Year Top Five Tips of the Week from Michael are here.

    Check them out and find the Best Binary Options Trading Ideas for this Week! Test them on CommuniTraders Binary Trading Platform!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.

    S&P 500 Breaks Support

    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above 1790
    Expiration = One Week

    I won’t deny that I am a long term bull and I still hold that position. At least until the long term trend line is broken and there is some form of confirmation and a change in the underlying fundamentals. The FOMC may cause a correction but the earnings, as well as other economic expectations, are perking up for 2014. This does not meant that today is the day to start initiating any new long term bullish positions. The drop in the SPX on Friday was very bearish and could have long term implications of its own. We’ll have to wait a little while to see about that.

    At this time it looks as if the index is going to be moving down to retest the long term trend line. The trend line (the one I have drawn, they can be subjective) is about another 35 points below Friday’s closing price. The action on Friday broke a short term support line I have been watching alongside a bearish increase in momentum. The indicators are not strong at this time so I am fairly confident the trend line will at least provide support in the short term if not reverse the current correction. Until then I am going to trade a put with a target entry above 1795 and one week until expiry.

    German DAX Falls With U.S. Markets

    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above 9375
    Expiration = One Week

    The DAX held its ground in early Monday trading but it is indicated down in the near term. On top of that the wieght of falling U.S. markets will surely add downward momentum. The bright side is that EU economic data has been improving and earnings are also looking better. I am trading a put this week based on the short term correction but maintain my longer term bullish stance. My target entry is above 9375 with one week until expiration.

    Euro Testing Support

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 1.3675
    Expiration = One Week

    The euro gained some strength last week and reversed an apparent down trend versus the dollar. The pair is now sitting above a long term support/resistance line and has bullish indicators. Momentum is on the rise and stochastic is moving higher after making a bottom near the lower signal line. I am trading a call on this pair for the week with a target entry below 1.3675. Weakness in the emerging markets makes has been helping the euro.

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Turkey really added some volatility to the week, especially in the currency trades.

  3. #3
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    You are right Michael.

    Turkey's central bank introduced a series of drastic increases in the monetary policy meeting as to eliminate inflation and support the lira. Turkish currency has fallen sharply in recent weeks. The bank has raised interest rates to 12% from 7.75%.

    The objective of the central bank's reduction of the inflation rate in the country, which accelerated to 7.4% in December. The bank expects inflation to fall to the target of 5% by mid-2015th. The bank has revised sharply upward its forecast for inflation at the end of the year, to 6.6% from 5.3%.

    Lira fell to a record low against the dollar since the beginning of January to almost 11%. Turkey's currency has strengthened nearly 4% against the dollar immediately after the session, but a portion of these gains later dropped by 1.5%.

    Lira is particularly sensitive to this reduction Fed bond buying program. Turkey is heavily dependent on foreign investment to finance the huge current account deficit.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Emerging market currency are very volatile this week. The dollar could see a boost versus all the world currencies, yesterday the dollar index moved back above resistance, maybe it will move higher. Indicators are kinda of weak and wishy washy though.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    Selling currency in developing countries is not abated after the Fed announced a further reduction of the stimulus. The slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity has increased the fear of risky investments.

    The unrest in emerging economies have intensified after the Fed's new program of buying bonds decrease by another 10 billion dollars to 65 billion per month.

    Investors to avoid risky investments due to concerns over the slowdown in China. The data showed that in January the Chinese HSBC processing index fell to a six-month minimum at 49.5 points.

    The Turkish lira fell more than 1% against the dollar and lost all the gains achieved after a large increase in interest rates. USD / TRY was recorded daily peak at 2.3012.

  6. #6
    Veteran Member hchandra's Avatar
    With fed's decision to taper further, this week was a week for dollar
    Slowdown in China spell fear to emerging market and market player early this monday,
    Coming week, it seems dollar will still dominate the market challenging resistance.

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