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  1. #1
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar

    David's Diary - the StumbleTraderDB saga !!!

    Argh, I had a big long post and lost it, apparently. Guess I'll just give a stripped-down version.

    Some notes about trading:

    Step Zero: Consider not getting involved at all - if any tendency to gamble, get emotional, etc.

    1) PRAY. Only God truly knows the future and if He does not bless this endeavor, it will not be for your good.

    BE CALM. You must not get excited or overconfident when things go well, and also not panic or despair when things get wonky. The human tendency when things go right is to think they will stay right and be easy, and when things go wrong is to get paranoid and start to feel like the market is doing things just to spite you, as if it were a living thing. You can't let that kind of thinking throw you off or make you jump into a hurried attempt to do better. Just step back, study the charts and think about what you did to learn if you can avoid the same mistakes. Stop when you win, too. Don't get excited and try to keep milking something that might be about to go dry.

    BE PATIENT - Check long-term trends, look for strong, regular trend. Set trend lines carefully. CHECK RSI AND BOLLINGER BANDS, watch out for double crests/troughs, breakouts. BUT if you wait TOO long, don't panic and jump in if it's already gone too far.

    GO WITH THE FLOW - Trade on the part of the wave going with the greater trend: when the trough bottoms out on an uptrend or a crest tops on a downtrend. Watch out for mid-trend sub-trends.

    BE CAREFUL - Make sure Instrument/Asset, expiry, and amount are set correctly. 5th

    BE MODEST - Don't be greedy. Be content. As noted under "BE CALM," don't try to get more than one good trade per trend/wave study.

  2. #2
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar

    Post 2 -- still early notes, looking back !!!

    Some notes I took while trading early on -- just what I thought were my mistakes:
    Traded too near the end of a triangle.
    Rushed, a little too soon.
    Went against the trend.
    Not patient enough.
    Rushed, tried for second trade on same (indication?)
    "Uh oh, 5th wave" (trend was old, died)
    Trend was not established, it was actually a disturbance (fake out)
    Didn't see flattening of trend, unmarked resistance level.
    Went by trend lines and [broker-provided] "trend analyzer" instead of the feeling I had from observing the movement -- I suspected it was peaking, but the lines were going up and the analyzer said "CALL" -- but the chart crashed right after I placed the CALL.
    [surprised by] New trend/breakout
    [what I thought was a strong] Bounceback was only a slow recovery.
    Over-impressed by RSI, traded too early.
    End of trend - too many waves.
    Too early, trend not well-established.
    Tiny candles.
    New trend bounced off (older) trend line.
    Rushed, didn't see bouncing off trend line, etc.
    Too early, minor trend [against major trend].
    Weak trend.
    Didn't think trend line effect would be so strong.
    Jumped on chart, not a solid stochastic indication/cross.
    small candles, jumpy.
    Too jumpy, trend line, no bounce vs trend
    Too late, small candles, early in new trend?
    60 second experiment - bad idea.
    Rushed to get in ontrend, too late.

  3. #3
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar

    Episode IV: A New Beginning (where have I heard that before? ;) ) !!!

    Not that I'm ignoring my previous notes, but after all I've been through and having lost a lot of money and more or less quit entirely, I feel like I'm beginning again, using brokers' bonus money that I shouldn't have accepted -- nor their suggestions for large trades that went bad. I've got three things going for me now that I didn't have when I first started:

    1) CommuniTraders, including the trading group on Skype and this diary.

    2) I've made spreadsheets for my accounts to keep a running record and total.

    3) I have a fully-developed technical analysis strategy that seems very promising, and the experience to practice what my general notes preach.

    So here's the strategy that I think is going to work for me:

    I'm sticking to 2 to 5 minute trades in small amounts.

    I've set up charts using NetDania's Netstation, for some of the most popular currency pairs, plus gold, silver, and oil.

    The charts are set for 1-minute candles. I overlay a Bollinger Bands study (indicator).
    BB 20:2

    Under the main charts I include a Stochastic study.
    Stochastic(fast) PKF 14:3

    I troll through the charts, zooming in and out to view the trends on different scales and setting horizontal, peak, and trough trend lines. I concentrate on charts that have consistently large candles with small wicks, and a strong steady pattern. Or as much of the forgoing as possible. Forget it if there are large wicks, teeny candles, or random jumping up and down.

    Then I look for two things. One is the typical Stochastic indicators. First I look for crests and troughs corresponding with those in the candle chart. The lines should be fairly smooth, not kinky or jiggly. Of course with the Stochastic indicator, you also pay attention to the crossovers of the two lines. You have to be aware that when the lines reach the extremes and start to reverse, and cross, they can move back and uncross. Sharp up and down trends are marked by the stochastic lines staying at the corresponding extreme, wiggling back and forth more or less. I don't mess with those conditions.

    What I look for is when the candlesticks break through the top or bottom Bollinger band, and then break away again. If they stick, of course you've got a trend, but I'm looking for those few minutes when the wave reverses back toward the other side. This rupture and then retraction is the key, but you have to make sure all the other ducks are in a row, too. You don't want place a PUT when a crest breaks through the top and then backs away if there's a strong general uptrend.

    If this technique continues to be as successful as a number of recent attempts, I may post some pictures and explain further if anyone is interested.

  4. #4
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    sounds like you are trying to "Strike Back".. that's good, your new notes sound good too. Stick with your rules, trade with the trend.... and don't get discouraged if things don't work out the way you think, it takes time to get the experience to be able to trade successfully in a sustained and profitable way. But you are on the right track.

  5. #5
    Legendry Member Okane's Avatar
    Hey! Now that you are here, let's get started!
    Sometimes the details we share in the group are hard to digest
    so as I also suggested to Frederic earlier today, I say to you as well:
    take notes when we point out stuff and you can share it here (that way you can come back
    and look and refresh!). Later when the same thing happens you will remember that "aha, I have this
    explained in my diary, I can go check it out). That's what used to help me advance quickly.

    Another "homework" if you wish to call it, take one or two screenshots of your charts
    so people can see your settings. I know you explained well but you know what they say about
    pictures! Also makes your own diary easier to follow and easier to help you .
    You can use lightshot for the screenshots and save them as JPEG and upload here.
    I suggest you make sure the indicators you use and timeframe is included in the pics!
    If the pic is of a trade, then you can use an arrow and a cross to mark entry and expiry.

    These will for sure give you a boost.
    Live Webinar: Hidden Content
    Join My Skype Group: Hidden Content

  6. #6
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar
    Okay, I'm going to tell the sad tale of a trade I made with just some rough, raw observation of a repeating pattern. ALMOST worked... let's see if I can insert an image... Click image for larger version. 

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    Hmm, maybe I'll explain it in a reply...

  7. #7
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar
    Oh, no, it came out really tiny! Ugh, I've put enough time into this. It's supposed to show how USD/JPY seemed to show a pattern of dropping on the weekends and rising during the week, especially jumping up on Mondays, and early on Monday the 13th of June it was about as low as it had been the previous Monday, which was the lowest it had been except for a brief excursion early in May.

  8. #8
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar

    Monday the 13th, continued !!!

    Let's see what this looks like: Click image for larger version. 

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    This is supposed to show the week before -- when there was a midnight drop, the day ended higher than the low point early in the day, especially on Monday.

  9. #9
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar
    So, I placed a call (maybe I was sleepy, it was late at night here)at 3:55 GMT. I thought maybe 8 hours would be good, or maybe at 20:00, but the expiry times offered jumped from just a couple of hours at most all the way to 23:00. I figured 23:00 aught to be as good as 20:00, maybe better. I also figured I wasn't lucky enough to be coming in at the low point (and I knew I would have to be AFK for a good while), but I figured (correctly) that there would be more than enough recovery...
    Click image for larger version. 

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  10. #10
    Active Member StumbleTraderDB's Avatar
    Hope you can see how all sorts of trend lines could be drawn, from the optimistic tips, to the bottoms of the candles (what I expected to happen) and even the bottoms of the wicks, right on up towards the end... and then the chart dipped OTM just before 23:00(and back up again, too late).
    Oh, maybe this will show up a bit better:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Might as well throw in the detail image here. This is where the chart started going wonky:
    Click image for larger version. 

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