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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Tip from the Geek - S&P500, USD/EUR, USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Expire - 24-31/12/12 !!!

    Hi guys, hope you've some cash left after the christmas shopping, cause the markets are opened again and the profits are a small call away..

    Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For more tips ask on forum or click here.

    S&P 500, Christmas and the End of the Year

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 1435
    Expiration = daily, weekly

    The S&P tends to trade up over the holiday week regardless of market direction. The sheer lack of serious volume makes it easy for prices to run up. The good thing is that this action will probably remain range bound and on the S&P 500 that means the 1430-1450 range right now. I expect market volumes to be incredibly light, especially on Monday and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday it might pick up but with Christmas in the middle of the week many traders may just take the whole thing off. Monday is also an early close, 1:00pm ET. Monday may prove to be a good time to get in with a small weekly close position then sit back and enjoy the holiday.

    The S&P closed above 1430 last week which I think is important. This was important as resistance and since the rise above is now proving to be important again. I think this is the bottom of the holiday trading range and a good place to get into calls for weekly or daily expiration. Any drop down to this level, especially if it drops below this level, will be a great entry for calls. If the market moves up to the top of the range to quickly trading off intraday day lows will be good for hourly and daily calls.

    Yen Consolidating, another Leg Up Is On the Way

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = below 84.50
    Expiration = end of the month

    The yen is sliding, just like the BOJ and the new prime minister want. The combined efforts of the two should result in what they want, a weak currency and favorable trade conditions for their export economy. The USD/JPY trade is in a classic uptrend and is now consolidating for another up leg. Currently at +12 month highs the yen has quite a long way to go before hitting anything near long term highs. Abe’s conviction that more yen are needed and the BOJ’s current support the yen is going to keep sliding.

    Euro Topping Out At Resistance?

    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = above 1.3180
    Expiration = end of the month

    The Euro made a strong move up over the last two months while Greek and Spanish debt issues were laid to rest. The move was driven as much by European easing measures as much as those enacted by the FOMC. Now that there is little reason to expect more easing anytime soon the currencies should stabilize. The Euro/USD trade is at resistance and forming a bearish candle signal confirmed by stochastic and MACD divergences. I am trading puts on this pair through the end of the month expecting the Euro to trade in a range between 1.3000 and 1.3250.

  2. #2
    M.J is offline
    Veteran Member M.J's Avatar
    Eur/usd and usd/jpy looks to end last 2 days of the week in strongly bullish mood. Technical analysis shows that both EU and UJ r up for today and tomorrow.

  3. #3
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar

    It's crunch time in Washington! !!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Martin Kay View Post
    Hi guys, hope you've some cash left after the christmas shopping, cause the markets are opened again and the profits are a small call away..
    Looks like I did the right thing sitting at home and recharging my batteries this Christmas. US equities got hammered, Asian shares are up with the Yen 'avalanche' being positive news for the Japanese currency.
    This and the US dollar appreciating because of the doubts surrounding the upcoming fiscal cliff meeting has seen to it that a call on USD/JPY should hold strong for the coming week.
    As for the Euro/USD, I might go with a call because the economic troubles over in Europe haven't really affected the Euro's performance against the USD. The Greek debt issue has become less of a problem.

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