Tip from the Geek - S&P500, EUR/USD, Amazon. Weekly and Monthly Expire - 7-14/1/2013

[Martin Kay]

Hi guys, Michael is ready with his top 5 tips for the week! If you follow regularly his recommendations, you will know that he has very clever analytical and predictive insights. Check it out and find which the best opportunities of this week are!

Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For more tips ask on forum or click here.

The S&P Is Making 5 Year Highs
S&P 500
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 1460
Expiration = weekly

The S&P hit 5 year highs last week and based on that I would expect at least a little upside this week due to last minute stragglers trying to get into the market. On an actual technical basis the S&P is displaying a very nice buy signal on its charts of weekly and daily charts. On both charts we can see that stochastic has turned up and that momentum has turned bullish. While not a guarantee they help solidify my position that the long and mid term up trends are still intact.


The Euro Pulls Back To Support
Eur/USD
Call/Put = Call
Entry = below 1.3050
Expiration = weekly

The Euro made a sharp drop last week when the FOMC minutes revealed they were considering an end to QE. The 1.3000 level has been an important support/resistance line and pivot point for more than the last 12 months. This move was completely knee-jerk and will prove to be yet another buying opportunity for bulls in this trade. The FOMC minutes were perceived in the wrong way for two reasons: 1) they were minute, a discussion by the Fed Governors, not policy. 2) the outlook for this end to QE is at least 10 months away if not more which leaves the current fundamentals intact. Once the markets realize this the Euro will continue to strengthen against the dollar. I am entering into weekly calls on this trade.


Amazon For Earnings Season
Amazon
Call/Put = call
entry = below $260
expiration = end of the month

I am expecting earnings season to be a good one this year and Amazons recent action makes me think it is a good place to ride it out. However, on a note of caution, Amazon has gapped up twice in the last week of trading and is ripe for a pull back. I will wait for said pull back before getting into a monthly call.

[M.J]

FTSE:- Weekly technical analysis supports Strong buy.
S&P 500 :- Agree with fundamental analysis. This index will be bullish for this week.
Eur/Usd :- A little confusing long term trend. But I agree with fundamental analysis. Majority of technical indicators show it as bullish for current week.
Amazon :- I am in favor of Strong Buy.

[Michael Hodges]

FTSE:- Weekly technical analysis supports Strong buy.
S&P 500 :- Agree with fundamental analysis. This index will be bullish for this week.
Eur/Usd :- A little confusing long term trend. But I agree with fundamental analysis. Majority of technical indicators show it as bullish for current week.
Amazon :- I am in favor of Strong Buy.

Amazon does look great for a buy, I just hate chasing prices. Everytime I do that I end up losing money.

[Michael Hodges]

So far teh S&P has held 1460. The folks on CNBC keep talking about earnings worries but I think the markets are going to take any good news as an excuse to rally. Today may be flattish ahead of teh Alcoa report after the bell but with the street expectation so low for this company I think they are going to jump right over the bar set by the analysts and fan the flames of the current rally.

[willyw]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 08 January, 2013
Euro Dollar / US Dollar broke below the up trendline at 1.30, 2 day(s) ago. This is a bearish sign. This up trendline, currently with an ending point at 1.31, may now provide upside resistance. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite heavy--0% above average. This makes the breakout even more significant. If you decide to trade Euro Dollar / US Dollar, you may want to place a stop loss just above the up trendline, in case the breakout is premature.Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light--0% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. And with prices having only declined 0.75% since the breakout, the validity of the breakout is questionable.
The most recently confirmed up trendline for Euro Dollar / US Dollar has an ending point currently at 1.30. Expect prices to have some difficulty falling below this trendline. A break below this trendline (particularly on heavy volume) would be a bearish sign.
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for Euro Dollar / US Dollar. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4.
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bearish wave 4
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 2
Euro Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.29 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 51.59 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 57.23 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.00, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 19.54. This value is in the oversold territory.
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 1.30 one bar.

[RCox]

Hi guys, Michael is ready with his top 5 tips for the week! If you follow regularly his recommendations, you will know that he has very clever analytical and predictive insights. Check it out and find which the best opportunities of this week are!

P/E ratios in Amazon make things a little worrisome for me but with the Cyber Monday trends now showing that the consumer is shifting to the online environment, this trade should be able to move into positive territory. High P/Es are common for stocks in this category but I think we will need to see some strong earnings in other areas in order to keep prices supported.

[RCox]

Amazon does look great for a buy, I just hate chasing prices. Everytime I do that I end up losing money.

I agree, this is why I generally find myself in the "catching a falling knife" category. The risk is that momentum is clearly against you but since extreme moves tend to be emotionally driven, giving enough time for prices to settle tends to help turn things around.

[vinayakm]

P/E ratios in Amazon make things a little worrisome for me but with the Cyber Monday trends now showing that the consumer is shifting to the online environment, this trade should be able to move into positive territory. High P/Es are common for stocks in this category but I think we will need to see some strong earnings in other areas in order to keep prices supported.

Since I am such a tech fanatic, its only right I comment on Amazon (AMZN). I did make quite a bit off money of Amazon over the holiday season when I rightly predicted that the e-commerce giant's stock would be on an up trend. But your right the extremely high P/E ratio 3563.73 (it has swelled considerably) does not bode well for Amazon at all.

It sucks that the EPS is only 0.07 which is a strong indication of the competition that Amazon is facing from the likes of Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) and Macy's (M). The profit margins are very low indeed with a negative profit margin in 3Q12.

Nonetheless, Amazon's revenues are growing considerably and it is still a growth stock despite its size. I have always been a growth investor!

[M.J]

Amazon does look great for a buy, I just hate chasing prices. Everytime I do that I end up losing money.

hahaha. Tricky market.. or maybe market is trying to dodge u while u r trying to dodge market. But there r lucky people chasing prices and winning. . So the questions.... WHY only we end up loosing????

[esiconsum]

Don't you guys think the brokers in a future will let customers set their binary trades, setting the entry price and automaticly make the trade if price goes at entry price??