Tip from the Geek - SP500, EUR, Nikkei - Weekly Expire - 18-25/02/2013

[Martin Kay]

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Originally posted by Michael Hodges. For the whole article click here.

S&P 500 A Stones Throw From All Time Highs

SPX

Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 1520

Expiration = end of the month

The S&P 500 traded in a tight range last week on very light volume. The move up and out of the previous consolidation range is being tempered by the resistance I described before but also by the impending spending sequester. The sequester is Pandora’s box for politicians with resolution echoing throughout the system. Cut spending and send the economy back into recession or keep spending and grow the national debt to new high levels. No matter what they do the markets will react. In the short term it is all just speculation, the facts that we have show an economy in stabilization and recovery. Long term indicators on the charts of weekly closing bars are bullish. The sideways action of the last two weeks has done nothing to turn me bearish and a lot to help the S&P relieve overbought conditions. Adding to this bullishness is positive comments from the Bundesbank about Germany and statements from Japan’s minister of finance. I am trading calls on the S&P 500 with an entry below 1520 and end of the month expiration.


Euro Still Declining Against The Dollar

Eur/USD

Call/Put = Put

Entry = above 1.3350

Expiration = end of the week

The Euro began a correction versus the dollar last week and looks good to continue it. The pair retreated from a 12 month high on the back of negative comments from Mario Draghi concerning risks to the EU economy. Even though Germany is expected to improve growth this quarter the EU as a whole is not. There are still some risks ahead and impending elections in Italy are only one of them. I am trading puts with an end of the week expiration and a target entry above 1.3350.


Nikkei Targeted By Japans Minister Of Finance

Nikkei 225

Call/Put = Call

Entry = below 11,500

Expiration = end of the month

Japans finance minister stated over the weekend that Japan was targeting stock prices as well as yen value in its approach to fiscal stimulus. The target for the Nikkei is 13,000, fully 1500 points higher than it is now. With the BOJ’s currency devaluation unfettered by the G-7 I see this target being reached in short order. I am trading calls on the Nikkei with an entry below 11,500 and end of the month expiration.

[Aravins]

Great ideas Michael! Nikkei was out of my radars and I just now realized that it could produce fairly good monthly trade! SP500 also looks as it is headed toward new all time high. Let's see it

[M.J]

Eur/USD definitely PUT
Technically short term trend of SPX is unclear today whereas longterm trend is strongly bullish.
Same goes for NI225. Strong bullish trend.

[marvel]

I think EUR/USD lost its downside momentum and will rebound this week fairly good. Also SP500 despite its strength has substantial risk for downside as there was no one correction during last several months. So I will avoid your tips Michael. Sorry for that but you know the best way to trade is to follow your own analyses. You were done greatly last month and your tips are really the best I know adapted for binaries.

[Michael Hodges]

Great ideas Michael! Nikkei was out of my radars and I just now realized that it could produce fairly good monthly trade! SP500 also looks as it is headed toward new all time high. Let's see it

S&P does look good at this time. I would still like to see a move above 1525 though. Ohhh.. . it just happened,

[Michael Hodges]

I think EUR/USD lost its downside momentum and will rebound this week fairly good. Also SP500 despite its strength has substantial risk for downside as there was no one correction during last several months. So I will avoid your tips Michael. Sorry for that but you know the best way to trade is to follow your own analyses. You were done greatly last month and your tips are really the best I know adapted for binaries.

I totally agree, whenever I go against my own thoughts I usually end up sorry. As for theS&P I think there is downside risk but I also don't think anything will happen until the spending sequester....I also am fairly confident that the S&P will reach the all time high before that. Long term I am awaiting the sell signal but must continue trading bullishly until that happens.

[Ammeo]

S&P does look good at this time. I would still like to see a move above 1525 though. Ohhh.. . it just happened,

Time to go Call on S&P . i may trade a Call on it keeping its expiry at on Friday.

[Michael Hodges]

Maybe the correction just started...

[LesterK]

Yep possibly bigger one as we saw today big selloff all over the markets, EUR, GBP and AUD declined, oil and precious metals – big selloff and at the end of the day 80$ drop in DJIA. After such a stable and continuous bull trend there is a room for a sizable correction. We will see next few days, but for now I think it is too risky to enter weekly puts on assets which are already massively oversold in shorter time frames.