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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard - EUR/CHF, PCLN Weekly Expiry 01-08/04/13 !!!

    The new Richard's Weekly Market Outlook is here!

    This week begins with Easter holidays in most parts of the Europe and very calm trading on Monday. The Cyprus crisis was almost solved after agreement lately last week on the taxation of big deposits above 100k. This week interesting data will come from both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, we will have important data releases (including NFP on Friday). Check Richard’s tips and find the best opportunities now!

    Originaly posted by RCox.

    The S&P 500 showed short term increases in price volatility but ultimately joined the group of global benchmark indices posting new post-credit crisis highs. Supportive factors were seen in the latest GDP release from the US and the stable earnings results seen from Research in Motion. The latter event helps to confirm that the weak estimates from market analysts in this year’s earnings season were insufficient, and investors have taken the positive surprises as a reason to drive stock valuations higher. Quarterly growth figures at 0.4% should call some of these moves into question and revive arguments related to the Greenspan “irrational exuberance” phrase, so the main question going forward center on investor persistence in driving prices forward now that the benchmark indices have posted new all-time highs.
    The other central market story was the progress made in Cyprus, but when looking at the performance in European stocks, it appears that the broader market is unconvinced that these agreements have truly reached completion or will solve the structural problems seen in the European economy. Even with evidence of a bailout agreement, the EUR/USD has fallen to new lows for the year and we will need to see a significant market catalyst to push prices back above the 1.30 level near term.

    1. Last week, we had some pretty good success picking levels in for PUTS in the EUR/JPY but with my typical contrarian approach, I will be looking to play weakness from the other side using a related pair. The EUR/CHF is coming into support at current levels, so I will wait for a spike low into 1.2130 before initiating new weekly CALL options. Excessive strength in the USD/CHF makes the pair less attractive, so I will be looking to trade against the current price momentum in the Euro.

    2. For stock trades, I will be looking for monthly CALLS in (PCLN), at $680. With strong earnings reported last month, analyst upgrades in the airline sector, recorded increases in airline ticket sales, the stock is trading at a 50% Fib retracement of its long term move, and prices will likely find support in this area.

  2. #2
    Junior Member
    I think the market volatility will greatly increase during the Draghi speech on Thursday and then again after the NFP on Friday. In these circumstances it will be difficult to trade weekly options as the end of the week could lead to surprises. I will trade only hourly options after the releases.

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