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  1. #1
    Junior Member howard1's Avatar

    Hot US Economy Outlook !!!

    Hi, guys! I am starting this thread with the aim to capture as many as possible opinions on the US Economy and its future projections. I found some interesting brief outlook which I will present here:

    The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of the year. Consumer spending during that time rose at a 3.2% rate but government spending cuts had a negative effect on growth.

    Analysts had estimated a 3% growth so the shortfall was disappointing for the USD. Due to negative employment indicators in Europe the EUR was not able to capitalize on USD weakness.
    On the other hand the USD was able to advance versus the JPY as deflation continues to grow and there are questions around the Bank of Japan’s policy being successful in a 2 year time frame.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member LesterK's Avatar
    US Economy is doing much better than the European for the moment. That is a proven fact, but this is difficult to project in the future. As we know the economy is cyclical in its nature and the present period of growing could be followed by some not very favorable period for the economic activity. My suspicion is that we are close to the pick and there could be more than a year downside period ahead. The stock market is on all time high and some of the major stocks already reached their tops and now are declining. This is a symptom for a market exhaustion and possible reverse in play. In order to have stronger confirmation on that idea we have to see that also the broader market decline by several percentages. If we didn’t see that we couldn’t be sure that after such a long period (2009-2012) of bull market the situation will be reversed and couldn’t give us indications that we have to play short.

  3. #3
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Really great thread. I will look to watch this thread and post some of my insights regularly as I mainly watch US indices and equities.

    Great start howard!

  4. #4
    Legendry Member milos's Avatar
    U.S. stocks in the technology sector in the past decade had the highest growth Analysts reduce earning forecast for the second quarter.During the last week the S&P500 rose 1.7% after the majority of the company announced that during the first quarter achieved higher earnings than forecast. Futures U.S.stocks during the European session increased so that the index S&P500 is likely to grow by the sixth month in a row.Lower GDP growth than excepted and U.S. economy spurred optimism among investors that the Fed may still decide to continue monetary easing.

  5. #5
    Specialist Member marvel's Avatar
    Great thread howard1! I will also participate regularly here. The US Economy is one of the major driving forces behind the global markets and its shape and strength is very important indicator on what is going on not only in the USA but in the all other parts of the world too.

  6. #6
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    US Stocks advance at the open on strong jobless claims report and ECB rate cut. Dow adds 102 points; S&P adds 14 points

    The job market is continuing to improve with jobless claims dropping to 324K which leaves the number at a 5-year low. This has gone against the expectations of economists and it has driven the US indices to record highs early and I fully expect the bullish trend to continue.
    What is more, even the four-week moving average that is checked to offset the volatility has also declined.

    There will be more positive economic data out on Friday with the Labor Department scheduled to release a monthly jobs report which market analysts expect will show that the US economy added 140,000 jobs in the month of April which is a big climb from the March 88,000 figure.

    Time for some calls on the US indices and to buy a few large cap stocks and Dow Stocks.

  7. #7
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    In a nutshell- the U.S. economy is improving but still has hurdles ahead. I see the indexes trending upward with data until the FOMC labor/inflation targets are met. At that time unwinding policy will likely reverse the markets. This could begin by the end of the year, until then I think rally with occasional correction is in store for us.

  8. #8
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Michael Hodges View Post
    In a nutshell- the U.S. economy is improving but still has hurdles ahead. I see the indexes trending upward with data until the FOMC labor/inflation targets are met.
    Wow, way to take a stance. I think the shark lost patience months ago.

    Who is bored.

  9. #9
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    is that patience with me or with the markets?

    Are you stating that the shark is bored or are you asking if others are bored like you?

    You can take a stance as well, put your money where your mouth is so to speak. I have a stance and it is built on years of experience, knowledge and education... but I also still recognize that I could be completely off base. I know you are a contrarian, I respect that and your ability to pick market tops, but there just isn't anything telling me different than what I see, certainly not the market that keeps setting new highs.

  10. #10
    Master Member vinayakm's Avatar
    Question: What is "Supply" with regards to the stock market?

    Answer: It's the total number of shares outstanding.

    And what is "Demand"? It's the need and wants to buy shares by investors.

    Right now, supply is falling. This is both a good thing and a bad thing.

    The good part is that firms have huge profit margins and are using their excess cash to buy back shares. Shares outstanding is declining. When companies with $100 billion in cash like Apple buy back shares, this brings down supply for the big institutional investors, etc.

    Another advantage: When supply decreases, price increases. This is why the stock market right now is at all-time highs.

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