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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot Tip from the Geek - SP500, DAX, EUR/USD Weekly Expire - 29/04-06/05/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The New Top Five Tips of the week from Michael are here. The new week will be dominated by the new round of economic data, including NFP on Friday. Tomorrow is the last day of the April and the new month will start with a lot of interesting moves. Check Michael tips and find out the best opportunities for the week!

    Originaly posted by Michael Hodges.

    SPX Higher On Earnings?

    S&P 500
    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 1585
    Expiration = End of the week

    The S&P 500 has two things moving it this week, earnings and the economy. This is one of four weeks of the year in which earnings season coincides with major economic data. Good thing it isn’t expiration week too. This week I will begin by touching base with my long term analysis. I do this on 5 year charts with weekly bars. On this chart my indicators are still bullish though very weak. MACD has retreated to near the zero line and flattened out, stochastic is high in the overbought and zone but pointing down. Looking back over the last year the index is still diverging from indicators and is at a very significant resistance level. I am beginning to have a very neutral outlook on this chart. The trend is still up so my trading is still up and so is my caution level.

    I take most of my signals from the daily charts. This chart is telling me that trading calls is the right decision. Both indicators have turned bullish, confirming each other and the long term trend. At this time the signal is still weak. There is still resistance ahead, earnings and the economy may not be enough to get the index through it. I am trading calls this week because of my analysis. I am also making a cautious entry because of my analysis. Adding to the complexity of trading this week is the end of the month and my available expiry’s. For caution I am trading half size positions. Because of the end of the month I am buying one call early in the week with a target entry below 1585 and an end of the week expiration. Later in the week, contingent on a break above 1600, I will buy another half size position with an end of the month expiration.

    Europe Still Vulnerable

    Call/Put = Call
    Entry = Below 7850
    Expiration = End of the week

    Germany is in good position to benefit from a stabilizing EU. The formation of Italy’s government and new actions taken by Greece are two signs that the region may be on track to meet Mario Draghi’s forecast for EU GDP growth in the second half of this year. The DAX made a nice bounce last week from a long term support level. The index looks a little extended here but I don’t think a pullback is something I can count on at this time. I am trading calls on the DAX with a target entry below 7850 and an end of the week expiration.

    Euro Can’t Find Direction

    Call/Put = Put
    Entry = Above 1.3080
    Expiration = End of the week

    The Euro has been trading flattish against the dollar for about 2-3 weeks now. The pair has been experiencing downward pressure due to weakness and instability in the EU. This pressure may let up but maybe not. The U.S. is definitely getting stronger. Things are super duper but they are OK. The EU is still a big question mark. It is still possible that the ECB will have to increase easing measures to help bolster the economy. I am looking for U.S. data to add to the pressure this week as well. I am trading puts on the EUR/USD with a target entry above 1.3080 and an end of the week expiration.

  2. #2
    Legendry Member Michael Hodges's Avatar
    Looking good so far this week. The Euro/USD trade is a little shaky but I am expecting a move from the ECB tomorrow that could send this pair down.

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