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  1. #1
    Administrator Martin Kay's Avatar

    Hot New Tips by Richard – USD/JPY, SP500 Weekly Expiry 8/05-12/2013 !!!

    Hi guys,

    The new Richard's Weekly Binary Options Trading Tips ready for you!
    Check them out and spot the best trading opportunities presented in depth by our PRO trader Richard!

    Originaly presented by Richard Cox.

    In the week ahead, there is not much to get excited about in terms of economic data, as the biggest releases will be US Retail Sales, and GDP figures out of Germany and Japan. It is unlikely that any of this information will drive many new positions so the main question will be how markets are likely to respond to suggestions that quantitative easing stimulus will start to be phased out. For these reasons, it will be important to watch for any commentary from voting members of the US central bank.
    Other than that, traders should prepare for position squaring, as we are seeing some big (and largely unjustified) moves in the US Dollar that are likely to start reversing. This should lead to successful upside breakout strategies in the US currency against most of its counterparts.

    1. Recent weakness in the US Dollar is unlikely to continue, given the consistent strength we are seeing in economic data and the increased likelihood the Fed will start to cut back on stimulus. Going forward, I will be looking to play off of the latest bear moves in the USD/JPY, and will consider adding positions in the Australian Dollar as well. This week, look to buy weekly CALL options in USD/JPY at the week’s open on Monday, which should come in near the 96.10 area.

    2. For stock trades, I will be looking to capitalize on the generalized weakness that will probably mark equities next week. Given this bearish expectation (based on profit taking, additional tapering worries), it makes sense to get stock bearish in the S&P 500 right at the open. From a technical perspective, we will see a triggered head-and-shoulders formation in the S&P on any break below 1680. Buy weekly PUT options in SPY on Monday’s open, which should be just under 1690.

  2. #2
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    Both trades this week have performed like clockwork, with the recs hitting nearly the exact turning points in this week's activity. Given the strength of the previous near-term trends (bullish for the S&P 500, bearish for the USD/JPY), these ideas are now in an excellent position going forward. In the USD/JPY, diverging viewpoints in the central banks for both countries have helped the USD higher and pushed the JPY lower, after a period of profit taking and indecision in the earlier parts of the month. The rec for this week called for the purchase of CALL options in the 96.10 area, which turned out to be the dead bottom before reversing nearly 300 points higher. It is hard to see this trade closing out of the money but given the strength of the moves seen this week, it is too late for traders to enter at these levels. The trade really needed to be taken as it was released, so there is no advice to try getting in now, as the "train has left the station." I still see more upside in this pair into the latter parts of the year but we will need to see corrective retracements before looking at re-entry points from the bull side.

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  3. #3
    Specialist Member RCox's Avatar
    For this week's stock trades, I was looking for a few different factors to negatively influence the S&P 500 and signal that a near term top is in place in the 1690 area. This week's trade called for the purchase of PUT options into the resistance zone seen at 1690, and this area turned out to be just under the exact top (which was just above 1693). Fundamentally, I was expecting a slowing period of momentum to the upside, given the lack of liquidity and volatility that generally marks this period. And without any real fundamental drivers that could send prices higher, I felt it much more likely we would see a round of profit taking at elevated levels, which would send prices lower. In addition to this, markets are still pricing in a roughly 65% chance that the Fed will start removing stimulus from the economy, and this is another fundamental negative for stocks. From a technical perspective, we are also seeing a head and shoulders pattern, which has since been confirmed given the neckline break at 1676. For this week, we had a nice period of confluence when looking at the S&P 500 from both a fundamental and technical perspective. This clearly pointed to new near term lows, so it is not entirely surprising to see the big bear moves that are occurring now. An out of money close for the week is still within the realm of possibility, but we would need to see a big turnaround very quickly, and the short term momentum direction suggests this is unlikely.

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  4. #4
    Junior Member
    Great predictions Richard with great accuracy! Congratulations! We are waiting with interest your predictions for the next week

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